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With Greece on the brink of default, people are increasingly concerned about who could be next. Italy? Portugal? The U.S.?
We drew on UBS analyst Andrew Cates' aggregate balance sheet risk index to provide a snapshot of the financial fragility of the countries most at risk.
The factors that help determine balance sheet risk include high cumulative credit outstanding, high banking sector leverage as measured by loan-deposit ratios, and substantial public sector debt as a percentage of GDP.
Note: All data is for 2010. The Balance Sheet Risk index depends on several indicators that include credit to GDP ratio, loan to deposit ratio, public sector debt as a percent of GDP, and indicators of external fragility like current account balance to GDP ratio and external debt to GDP ratio among others.
#19 U.S.
obama photos via Flikr
Credit to GDP ratio: 5.1%
Loan deposit ratio: 147%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 92.7%
Total score: 4.8
Source: UBS
#18 Poland
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 24.6%
Loan deposit ratio: 106.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 54.2%
Total score: 4.8
Source: UBS
#17 Romania
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 21.2%
Loan deposit ratio: 113.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 35.3%
Total score: 5.1
Source: UBS
#16 Norway
ingerson_sharon on flickr
Credit to GDP ratio: 24.8%
Loan deposit ratio: 214.9%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 54.3%
Total score: 5.1
Source: UBS
#15 Canada
s.yume via Flickr
Credit to GDP ratio: 23.4%
Loan deposit ratio: 199.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 81.7%
Total score: 5.1
Source: UBS
#14 Italy
adolfo barandiaran on flickr
Credit to GDP ratio: 25.3%
Loan deposit ratio: 165.2%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 118.4%
Total score: 5.2
Source: UBS
#13 Finland
Credit to GDP ratio: 19.9%
Loan deposit ratio: 156.4%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 50%
Total score: 5.3
Source: UBS
#12 Bulgaria
Credit to GDP ratio: 36%
Loan deposit ratio: 102.6%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 16.6%
Total score: 5.3
Source: UBS
#11 Netherlands
AP Images
Credit to GDP ratio: 15.7%
Loan deposit ratio: 158.7%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 66%
Total score: 5.4
Source: UBS
#10 Sweden
ulrich_berkner via flickr
Credit to GDP ratio: 27.3%
Loan deposit ratio: 237.6%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 41.7%
Total score:
Source: UBS
#9 Belgium
AP Images
Credit to GDP ratio: 22%
Loan deposit ratio: 98.1%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 100.2%
Total score: 5.5
Source: UBS
#8 France
AP Images
Credit to GDP ratio: 19.4%
Loan deposit ratio: 163.6%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 84.2%
Total score: 5.5
Source: UBS
#7 Denmark
AP Images
Credit to GDP ratio: 44.1%
Loan deposit ratio: 346.1%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 44.2%
Total score: 5.6
Source: UBS
#6 Hungary
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 21%
Loan deposit ratio: 123.6%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 85.3%
Total score: 5.8
Source: UBS
#5 UK
Credit to GDP ratio: 35.2%
Loan deposit ratio: 150.5%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 76.7%
Total score: 6
Source: UBS
#4 Greece
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 55.7%
Loan deposit ratio: 117.7%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 130.2%
Total score: 6.1
Source: UBS
#3 Spain
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 66%
Loan deposit ratio: 223%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 63.5%
Total score: 6.3
Source: UBS
#2 Portugal
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 53.6%
Loan deposit ratio: 189.2%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 83.1%
Total score: 7
Source: UBS
#1 Ireland
AP
Credit to GDP ratio: 56.1%
Loan deposit ratio: 187.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 99.4%
Total score: 7.6
Source: UBS
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